The NBA world was shocked when the Milwaukee Bucks swept the Miami Heat in the first round of the NBA playoffs. Many had thought that this series would go to 6 or 7 games, with the Heat often being picked to beat Milwaukee. However, after an overtime victory in game one, the Bucks ran away with games two, three, and four. Here are my thoughts on both teams following a surprising playoff series.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks look like a completely different team than they were last year in the bubble. The additions of Jrue Holiday and Bobby Portis have paid dividends, and while P.J. Tucker hasn’t put up numbers this season (2.6 PPG, 2.8 RPG), his defensive presence is what makes him a valuable addition to this team. Jrue Holiday’s ability to create on offense keeps the offensive burden off of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, which further opens up an already potent offense.
My one concern with this team is that, while Giannis is a very talented player, he can’t have the ball in his hands to end the game, as teams can take advantage of the fact that he’s not a great free throw shooter (he shot 68.5% on his free throws this season). However, as Khris Middleton proved with his overtime heroics in Game 1, Giannis doesn’t have to carry the team at the end of games. As long as Middleton and Holiday can carry this team late in games, the Bucks will have a lot of playoff success this year.
The Bucks are one of two teams (and the only team in the East) that I believe have a chance at beating the Nets. Jrue Holiday is an excellent defender who can take on either James Harden or Kyrie Irving, while Khris Middleton can guard the other. Meanwhile, Giannis has the height to take on Kevin Durant. While it’s impossible to neutralize any of the Nets’ star players, the Bucks have the best shot at limiting them defensively. Additionally, I don’t see anyone on Brooklyn’s roster who can effectively defend Giannis.
Brooklyn’s lack of big men was talked about all season, and while it hasn’t hurt them so far against the Celtics, Boston doesn’t exactly have a star big that can drop 30 on the Nets. Giannis, however, is arguably the league’s best power forward and will dominate in the paint if the Nets can’t come up with some sort of defensive scheme to stop him. Milwaukee’s size advantage (they also have Brook Lopez) could also give them a sizable advantage on the boards, which would be crucial as they try to keep the ball out of Brooklyn’s hands.
Miami Heat
The Heat also looked like a completely different team than they were in the bubble. That is, they looked awful in the series against the Bucks. After losing a close Game 1, they looked uninspired as they lost the rest of the series. They were so bad, they even broke the Charles Barkley sweep curse! This series showed us that while Jimmy Butler (who shot 29.7% from the field against the Bucks) is a very talented player, he shouldn’t be a team’s primary offensive player.
The Heat had a chance this season to add James Harden, who would’ve made this team a true contender, during the season, but they refused to include Tyler Herro in any trade packages. At the time, this didn’t seem completely unreasonable, as Herro was coming off of a finals run with the Heat, during which he looked like a future star. ESPN even ranked him as the 59th best player in basketball heading into the season. However, Miami should’ve been willing to invest in its current playoff window instead of keeping Herro for the future. Trading for Harden would’ve made the Heat the favorites coming out of the East.
So, were the Heat bubble frauds? Well, yes and no. The environment of the NBA bubble definitely helped the Heat get to the Finals. Home court advantage wasn’t as a big a factor for Miami as it was for other teams, such as the Bucks, who went 30-5 at home and 26-12 on the road last season. But the East also got significantly better this year. The 76ers had the best record in the East thanks to new coach Doc Rivers and a season from Joel Embiid that would have had him in the MVP discussion if it weren’t for injuries. The Nets brought back a healthy Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant before adding a top-10 player in James Harden. The Bucks, Knicks and Hawks improved thanks to new roster additions, player development, and, in the case of the latter two teams, new head coaches.
As this was happening, the Heat struggled with injuries and COVID protocols, which hurt their chances of getting one of the top 4 seeds in the East. But the decision to not trade for James Harden is going to haunt them as they face a key offseason. They need to add another star to pair with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, but the free agent market is somewhat limited on stars, especially if Kawhi Leonard (player option) decides to stay in L.A. They’ll also have to re-sign or replace key players like Duncan Robinson, Trevor Ariza, Kendrick Nunn, and trade deadline acquisition Victor Oladipo, who missed the playoffs with a torn quadriceps tendon.
While the Heat don’t project to have much cap space, they can free up over 34 million dollars by declining the team options on Goran Dragic and Andre Iguodala. However, they would then have only 5 players on their 2021-22 roster. Still, expect Miami to make some major changes during the offseason, as many of their moves in previous years were centered around keeping cap space available for this offseason, which was projected to be filled with stars but has since dwindled due to contract extensions.
Despite the lack of free agent stars, the Heat could easily pull off a trade for a star like Bradley Beal, Karl Anthony-Towns, or Russell Westbrook. Though the NBA is volatile, having one of the league’s best head coaches in Erik Spoelstra and a front office with a winning track record should keep Miami in the playoff discussion for years to come.
Stats via Basketball Reference