Is Zach LaVine Worth a Max Contract?

Many fans and experts have argued that Zach LaVine should not receive max-contract money. This concern stems primarily stems from his recent knee injury. LaVine has been bothered by his surgically-repaired left knee since mid-January this season. This discomfort led LaVine to miss 13 games while looking like a shell of his usual self in others. Some have used this decline in play to justify not giving LaVine a new contract. Others argue that the nagging knee injury is too much of a risk for a max player.

First of all, using injured play to bash LaVine — or any player, for that matter — is a bad idea. Plenty of players have struggled while dealing with injuries just to return to their prior form when healthy. LaVine, like many other players, has already come back (and even improved) since a big knee injury. In addition, despite some fans having durability concerns, LaVine has only missed an average of 13.5 regular season games/year since his injury-shortened 2017-18 season. Numerous stars who aren’t generally considered “injury-prone” — including LeBron James, Jrue Holiday, Jimmy Butler, and Kyle Lowry — have missed more time than LaVine over the past four years.

Finally, some believe that LaVine isn’t good enough for a max contract, but that simply isn’t true. Plenty of teams give max contracts to players at or below Zach’s level of play. Tobias Harris, Michael Porter Jr., Andrew Wiggins, CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Jamal Murray, and De’Aaron Fox have all recently signed maximum contracts. Can you confidently say any of those players are better than Zach? In my opinion, they are, at best, at the same level as LaVine, and thus, he should be compensated similarly.

However, the big question isn’t if the Bulls should re-sign Zach, it’s if they will. Let’s look at this from both the player/agent and front office sides.

The Zach LaVine Side

The primary reason Zach LaVine — and agent Rich Paul — should want to stay in Chicago is simple: Money. The Bulls hold Zach’s Bird Rights, which means that they can offer him more money than any other team. It also means that they can go over the salary cap to re-sign him, a luxury not afforded to any other team competing for his services. Basically, if LaVine’s contract decision is all about money, the Bulls are his best landing spot.

Moreover, the Bulls’ recent success should incentivize Zach LaVine to stay in Chicago. Thanks to the team’s recent roster additions, the Bulls made the playoffs this season for the first time during his Bulls tenure. Though the team crumbled after the All-Star break, the team’s play in the early months of the season offers a glimpse into its upside. Out of the teams that both have the ability to bring in LaVine and would want to add him, not many offer the same success as the Bulls. The Bulls’ recent additions show a commitment to winning, and if Zach values that, he’ll seriously consider staying in Chicago.

The Front Office Side

The Bulls’ recent roster moves don’t just show a commitment to winning — they show a commitment to Zach LaVine. The roster is, in theory, built around Zach LaVine. This Bulls team, when healthy, is able to maximize his strengths while hiding his weaknesses. Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball, the team’s two most important perimeter defenders, missed significant time this season. When they’re on the court with LaVine, they hide his defensive weaknesses. We saw this earlier this season before Ball went down with an eventually season-ending knee injury. Meanwhile, veteran scorers DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic help take the scoring load off of LaVine. (Well, Vucevic wasn’t very effect this season, but hopefully that changes next year.) If the Bulls didn’t believe in Zach LaVine long-term, they wouldn’t have invested money and draft capital into these players.

The Bulls’ front office continues to emphasize that they are committed to Zach LaVine long-term. Asked about LaVine on Friday, president of basketball operations Artūras Karnišovas expressed confidence in the 27-year-old guard, saying, “I hope he’s here for a long time.” Though interviews don’t always mean much, the front office has never indicated anything other than wanting LaVine in a Bulls uniform for the foreseeable future.

Final Thoughts

Though Zach LaVine is likely to test the free-agent waters, a return to Chicago is beneficial to both sides. He’s part of the Bulls’ long-term plans, and at only 27 years old, he still has a long playing career ahead of him. So, in all likelihood, Zach LaVine has not played his last game in a Chicago Bulls uniform.

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Starter-Like Minutes

Four players — Lonzo Ball, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic — should consistently play 30-34 minutes per game on a healthy Bulls team. Currently, all four are averaging at least 33.9 min/game. This number should decrease once the team is fully healthy.

Once the Chicago Bulls’ rotation is back to what it was meant to be, I wouldn’t be surprised if LaVine and DeRozan see slight minutes decreases. LaVine is dealing with a lingering knee injury, so he may need more rest down the stretch. DeRozan, who averaged 38.5 minutes/game in February, could also use a break

Furthermore, Ball and Vucevic may get more time on the bench than originally planned for this season. The surprise emergence of rookie Ayo Dosunmu as a strong defender and capable facilitator will force Billy Donovan to give him minutes (more on that later). This should, in turn, take out a small chunk of Ball’s workload. In addition, the Bulls recently brought in veteran big man Tristan Thompson. This could lead to a slight minutes reduction for Vucevic, who averaged over 35 minutes/game in February. The team may want to give Vucevic, 31, some much-needed rest before (hopefully) embarking on a deep playoff run.

Consistent Playing Time

This is where things start to get interesting. The Bulls have three bench guards — Alex Caruso, Coby White, and Ayo Dosunmu — who should all get a good share of minutes during any given game. This will likely force Billy Donovan to use three guard lineups at some point. This strategy worked very well for Donovan in his last year in Oklahoma City. There, he utilized lineups featuring a three-headed-monster of Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Dennis Schroder.

Patrick Williams will, when healthy, start for the Bulls. But how many minutes does he get, especially if he struggles early on? He’s a talented player, but he’s also a second-year player coming off an injury. Last year’s iteration of the team could afford to give Williams crucial minutes for development’s sake. However, as a team with championship aspirations, the Bulls may give Williams a short leash with other options waiting.

The Bulls have several starting options if Williams struggles. Though Derrick Jones Jr. and Javonte Green haven’t exactly been superstars in Williams’ absence, they’ve filled in admirably. Defense and athleticism have been Williams’ calling card in the NBA, as his shooting has yet to become consistent. Green and Jones provide similar skillsets, which bodes well for lineup versatility. Ideally, Williams looks like his pre-injury self (or perhaps an even better version of that player). In that case, this logjam at the 4 becomes a much better problem to have. An improved Patrick Williams could be the missing piece for this Bulls team.

Finally, Tristan Thompson should see the floor for a consistent amount of time each night. Though he likely won’t dig too far into Nikola Vucevic’s minutes, his only real competition for backup reps is Tony Bradley. Bradley, in the few games Thompson has played for the Bulls, has seemingly exited the rotation.

Out of the Rotation

There are three players who have played significant minutes at one point or another this season who I expect to become reserves once the team is healthy: Troy Brown Jr., Matt Thomas, and Tony Bradley.

Tony Bradley has caught a lot of negative attention from Bulls fans as an ineffective backup to Nikola Vucevic, but he actually performed well defensively at times. Opposing players shot 17% worse within 6 feet of the rim when Bradley was on the floor. Though Bradley’s sample size is obviously much smaller, that mark is better than some of the league’s best defenders, including Jarrett Allen (-15%), Jaren Jackson Jr. (-13.7%), and Rudy Gobert (-11.1%). However, barring an injury to Vucevic or Tristan Thompson, Bradley lacks a clear path to playing time on the Bulls this season.

Entering this season, Troy Brown Jr. had the potential to be a key bench player for Chicago. Despite flashes of quality play, Brown has been inconsistent this season. Like Tony Bradley, barring injury, he just doesn’t have a place on a team with hopes of making a deep playoff run, especially one with as deep of a roster as the Bulls have.

Lastly, we have Matt Thomas, arguably the most-hated player on the Bulls this season. Despite shooting 38% from beyond the arc, Thomas’s season has been marred by poor, almost Denzel Valentine-esque shot selection and sub-turnstile-level defense. Hopefully, once this Bulls team is healthy, Thomas won’t see the floor outside of 20+ point blowouts. As a 6’4″ guard, he doesn’t even fit a positional need depth-wise, since, as I stated earlier, the Bulls already have a lot of mouths to feed at guard.

Final Thoughts

Overall, the return of the Bulls’ injured players should provide a much-needed spark down the stretch. Not only will they solve some of the team’s defensive woes, but they should also help highlight the Bulls’ strong depth.

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This year, the Chicago Bulls missed out on the playoffs for the 4th straight time, which is the 3rd longest active playoff drought in the NBA (At least we aren’t the Kings). It’s been a long time since the Trio of Jimmy Butler, Dwyane Wade, and Rajon Rondo gave fans hope with a 2-0 lead over the Celtics, only to lose the series 4-2. 

While the Bulls try to find their way back into the dance in the coming years, many former members of the team are taking the court in the 2021 NBA Playoffs. With so many moving pieces over the last decade, there are a lot of former Bulls dispersed across the league, and some are making a big impact on their current team’s success.

Key Members of Their Team

Jimmy Butler

Butler spent 6 seasons with the Chicago Bulls before being traded to the Timberwolves, subsequently moved to the 76ers, and eventually found a home in Free Agency in Miami. He led them to the NBA Finals last year in the bubble, where he fell short to Lebron James and the Lakers. Last year Butler would have had his own tier in this exploration, but he has underperformed so far against the Milwaukee Bucks. The Miami Heat are in a historically insurmountable 3-0 series deficit, and Jimmy Butler has averaged just 15.3 points on an abysmal 31% from the field. 

Derrick Rose

Derrick Rose had a very successful stint in Chicago, including an MVP and Eastern conference finals birth. Unfortunately, as we all know, Rose has dealt with constant injuries, but has finally found his way back to national prominence with his former coach Tom Thibodeau on the New York Knicks. Although he doesn’t have high-flying dunks or many flashy plays anymore, he has worked hard to acquire a consistent Jump Shot and displays rare flashes of his MVP self. With both Julius Randle and RJ Barret underperforming, Rose has taken a lead role averaging 24.3 points, 5 Rebounds, and 4.7 assists on a very efficient 51.7% from the field, 50% from 3, and is yet to miss from the free throw line. The Knicks are trailing the Hawks 2-1 in what seems like an evenly matched series.

Bobby Portis

Bobby Portis has made a solid career as a role player, and has played his role to the best of his ability for the Milwaukee Bucks. While he doesn’t put up huge numbers or get headlines written about him, he is a great floor spacer and enforcer for the Bucks, who have thus far exceeded expectations with a 3-0 lead over the Miami Heat. In the series, Bobby is averaging 10 points and 6 rebounds per game on 63% from the field and 50% from three.

Cameron Payne

I never expected to be including Payne on the top tier of this list, but he has proven himself as a very solid player on a contending team. With the banged up shoulder of Chris Paul, Payne has filled in and often kept Phoenix afloat against the Lakers. A couple of years ago, Payne seemed on his way out of the league, but after a good audition for the Suns in the Bubble, he earned a spot on the team and has made the most of it. In the first three games of the series, Payne is averaging 13 points, 4.7 assists, and 1.7 steals while hitting 47% of his threes as part of a 2-1 Series deficit to the Lakers.

Solid Role Players

Taj Gibson

While Gibson may not be putting up the same production and minutes as he was during his tenure with the bulls, he has played very solid and made some timely plays for the Knicks as part of the former Bulls’ trio in Rose, Gibson, and Coach Thibs. He has played solid defense against the Hawks bigs and secured nine crucial offensive rebounds over a three-game span, in which the Hawks lead Knicks 2-1.

Daniel Gafford

Daniel Gafford is a player many fans may want back after being moved at the trade deadline. He has handled backup center duties for the Wizards and continued his regular season success to the playoffs. He brings energy and athleticism off the bench, averaging 11.5 points and 6 rebounds on 90% (!!!) from the field. However, he has gotten in some foul trouble, and his fellow Wizards have been unable to keep up with the #1 seeded 76ers, recently falling to a 0-2 deficit.

Rajon Rondo

Rondo was a key member of the last Bulls’ playoff appearance, and has gained recognition as an elite playoff performer even in the twilight of his career. This year, he has entered the playoffs as a member of the Clippers, a year after winning the finals with the Lakers. Rondo has again had himself a solid start to the playoffs (7 points and 6.3 assists on 48.4% from the field and 41.7% from three), and is fighting to keep the Clippers alive against the Mavericks, currently trailing the series 2-1.

Tony Snell

This season, Snell became a part of the exclusive 50-50-100 shooting splits club (He’s the only member), and that shooting along with his consistent defense has kept him in the Hawks’ playoff rotation. His production is pretty minimal, but he has provided floor spacing and solid defense in 12.5 minutes per game for the Hawks thus far.

Robin Lopez

Lopez has displayed his patented Hook shot on the national stage, but along with the other Wizards centers has gotten in foul trouble and struggled to contain Joel Embiid. He has averaged 5 points in 11 minutes per game in the Wizard’s two losses to the 76ers.

Fringe Rotational Players

Jabari Parker, Shaquille Harrison, Kris Dunn, and Chandler Hutchison

Parker got picked up by the Celtics a few weeks before the playoffs, and has gotten some decent Playing Time with Jaylen Brown sidelined. He has added a nice scoring punch off the bench, but has been picked on by the Nets on the other end. With injuries to Jamal Murray and Monte Morris, Shaquille Harrison has gotten a chance to play a few minutes each game, providing energy and defensive tenacity off the bench. Dunn has yet to get minutes in this year’s playoffs, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets thrown in there at some point on the defensive end down the stretch of a game. Hutchison was traded alongside Daniel Gafford to the Wizards, and has slid to a fringe rotation member during the playoffs. The majority of his minutes were played in Garbage time in a game 2 blowout against the 76ers.

Benchwarmers/Injured

Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot (TLC), Max Strus, Luke Kornet, E’twaun Moore, Spencer Dinwiddie

TLC is buried behind a deep Brooklyn Nets roster, but has cheered them on from the sideline and may earn a Ring in the process. Max Strus has yet to play for the Heat, even in the midst of multiple Blowouts. Kornet was traded to Celtics as part of the move that landed the bulls Daniel Theis, Troy Brown jr, and Javonte Green; Kornet has just played a few Garbage time minutes and is on the outside looking in of a tight rotation. Moore has made a long career for himself as a three-and-d wing, and is now a member of the Phoenix Suns, where he has struggled to find minutes in their competitive series with the Lakers. Spencer Dinwiddie has been recovering from a partially torn ACL on December 27, but there may be a chance of Dinwiddie returning before the end of the Playoffs.

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