Starter-Like Minutes

Four players — Lonzo Ball, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic — should consistently play 30-34 minutes per game on a healthy Bulls team. Currently, all four are averaging at least 33.9 min/game. This number should decrease once the team is fully healthy.

Once the Chicago Bulls’ rotation is back to what it was meant to be, I wouldn’t be surprised if LaVine and DeRozan see slight minutes decreases. LaVine is dealing with a lingering knee injury, so he may need more rest down the stretch. DeRozan, who averaged 38.5 minutes/game in February, could also use a break

Furthermore, Ball and Vucevic may get more time on the bench than originally planned for this season. The surprise emergence of rookie Ayo Dosunmu as a strong defender and capable facilitator will force Billy Donovan to give him minutes (more on that later). This should, in turn, take out a small chunk of Ball’s workload. In addition, the Bulls recently brought in veteran big man Tristan Thompson. This could lead to a slight minutes reduction for Vucevic, who averaged over 35 minutes/game in February. The team may want to give Vucevic, 31, some much-needed rest before (hopefully) embarking on a deep playoff run.

Consistent Playing Time

This is where things start to get interesting. The Bulls have three bench guards — Alex Caruso, Coby White, and Ayo Dosunmu — who should all get a good share of minutes during any given game. This will likely force Billy Donovan to use three guard lineups at some point. This strategy worked very well for Donovan in his last year in Oklahoma City. There, he utilized lineups featuring a three-headed-monster of Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Dennis Schroder.

Patrick Williams will, when healthy, start for the Bulls. But how many minutes does he get, especially if he struggles early on? He’s a talented player, but he’s also a second-year player coming off an injury. Last year’s iteration of the team could afford to give Williams crucial minutes for development’s sake. However, as a team with championship aspirations, the Bulls may give Williams a short leash with other options waiting.

The Bulls have several starting options if Williams struggles. Though Derrick Jones Jr. and Javonte Green haven’t exactly been superstars in Williams’ absence, they’ve filled in admirably. Defense and athleticism have been Williams’ calling card in the NBA, as his shooting has yet to become consistent. Green and Jones provide similar skillsets, which bodes well for lineup versatility. Ideally, Williams looks like his pre-injury self (or perhaps an even better version of that player). In that case, this logjam at the 4 becomes a much better problem to have. An improved Patrick Williams could be the missing piece for this Bulls team.

Finally, Tristan Thompson should see the floor for a consistent amount of time each night. Though he likely won’t dig too far into Nikola Vucevic’s minutes, his only real competition for backup reps is Tony Bradley. Bradley, in the few games Thompson has played for the Bulls, has seemingly exited the rotation.

Out of the Rotation

There are three players who have played significant minutes at one point or another this season who I expect to become reserves once the team is healthy: Troy Brown Jr., Matt Thomas, and Tony Bradley.

Tony Bradley has caught a lot of negative attention from Bulls fans as an ineffective backup to Nikola Vucevic, but he actually performed well defensively at times. Opposing players shot 17% worse within 6 feet of the rim when Bradley was on the floor. Though Bradley’s sample size is obviously much smaller, that mark is better than some of the league’s best defenders, including Jarrett Allen (-15%), Jaren Jackson Jr. (-13.7%), and Rudy Gobert (-11.1%). However, barring an injury to Vucevic or Tristan Thompson, Bradley lacks a clear path to playing time on the Bulls this season.

Entering this season, Troy Brown Jr. had the potential to be a key bench player for Chicago. Despite flashes of quality play, Brown has been inconsistent this season. Like Tony Bradley, barring injury, he just doesn’t have a place on a team with hopes of making a deep playoff run, especially one with as deep of a roster as the Bulls have.

Lastly, we have Matt Thomas, arguably the most-hated player on the Bulls this season. Despite shooting 38% from beyond the arc, Thomas’s season has been marred by poor, almost Denzel Valentine-esque shot selection and sub-turnstile-level defense. Hopefully, once this Bulls team is healthy, Thomas won’t see the floor outside of 20+ point blowouts. As a 6’4″ guard, he doesn’t even fit a positional need depth-wise, since, as I stated earlier, the Bulls already have a lot of mouths to feed at guard.

Final Thoughts

Overall, the return of the Bulls’ injured players should provide a much-needed spark down the stretch. Not only will they solve some of the team’s defensive woes, but they should also help highlight the Bulls’ strong depth.

The post Predicting the Chicago Bulls’ Late-Season Rotation appeared first on Bulls Don't Lie.

Basketball is back! After a hiatus that felt much longer than 19 days, NBA basketball is being played once again. Well, Summer League basketball. For basketball fans, the Summer League is a chance to see some of the league’s exciting young talent play for the first time at the professional level. For coaches and front offices, it’s a chance to evaluate young talent and younger players on the roster bubble. As one of the NBA’s most beloved traditions begins, here’s my guide to the Chicago Bulls’ Summer League experience.

Important Dates

Sunday 8/8 – Summer league begins in Las Vegas

Monday 8/9 – Bulls vs. Pelicans

Tuesday 8/10 – Bulls @ Spurs

Thursday 8/12 – Bulls @ Timberwolves

Sunday 8/15 – Bulls vs. Grizzlies

5th Bulls game TBD

Tuesday 8/17 – Summer League Championship Game (two teams with the best records face off)

Key Players

The Bulls didn’t have a first-round pick this year, so, unlike most teams, there’s not a clear-cut player to be on the lookout for this year. However, Chicago’s Summer League roster has several exciting young players who could (or should) end up making a difference this season.

Patrick Williams, SF/PF – After a promising rookie season, Williams is expected to take a leap in his second NBA season. While he showed promise on both ends of the floor, he sometimes disappeared and lacked aggressiveness. Finding himself as the forgotten member of the new-look Bulls’ starting lineup, he’ll have to assert himself if he wants to keep up with Chicago’s new firepower. If “the Paw” can continue to improve on defense and as a playmaker, he can become a valuable asset to a Bulls lineup that is still somewhat weak defensively. Look for him to become more aggressive on offense and continue to make life hard for the other team’s best player defensively.

Marko Simonovic, PF/C – Simonovic was drafted in the 2nd round last year but played in Europe this past season, so Summer League will be his first NBA action. Overseas, he averaged 15.7 points and 9.1 rebounds per game while shooting 35% from 3. Assuming Lauri Markkanen isn’t on Chicago’s roster by the time the season starts, Simonovic will be tasked with being the team’s backup 4. Summer League will be crucial for Marko’s development and acclimation to NBA-style basketball. The front office, meanwhile, will likely focus on Simonovic’s comfort level and ability in Summer League. If he struggles, look for the team to bring in a veteran 4 and for Simonovic to be relegated to more of a developmental/bench role.

Devon Dotson, PG – After going undrafted in 2020, Dotson signed a 2-way contract with the Bulls. Despite the team being plagued by injuries during the season and the lack of depth at point guard, Dotson saw very limited time with the Bulls. When he did play, he showed flashes, but that was in an extremely small sample size. With the Bulls adding Ayo Dosunmu, Alex Caruso, and Lonzo Ball, as well as the return of Coby White, Zach LaVine, and Javonte Green, Dotson suddenly finds himself on a team that’s deep at both guard positions. If he wants to make the 15-man roster, he’ll have to show out this summer.

Ayo Dosunmu, PG/SG – The former Illinois star was drafted by the Bulls in the second round this year, making him the first Chicago native drafted by the team since Derrick Rose. Ayo was a jack-of-all-trades in college, so it’ll be interesting to see which of his skills best translate to the NBA level. Dosunmu and Devon Dotson will likely compete for a roster spot this season (I don’t see the Bulls rostering 7 guards), so Dosunmu will need to outplay Doston to earn said roster spot. Look for the Bulls Summer League team to experiment with Dosunmu as they try to figure out his fit on the roster. Though he was a good playmaker for the Illini, Ayo’s scoring was his calling card, and he has the potential to become a capable NBA scorer. Both Dotson and Dosunmu will need to take advantage of their Summer League minutes to prove to the coaching staff that they deserve playing time during the regular season.

Simi Shittu, PF/C – Shittu is a familiar name to Bulls fans who watched the preseason last year, as he looked like he could make the final 15-man roster. Shittu didn’t end up on Chicago’s roster and instead played for the G League’s Westchester Knicks, where he averaged 14.5 points and 10 rebounds per game. Shittu’s more of a traditional big man, offering rim protection and inside scoring. The Bulls lack big man depth, as well as quality rim protection, so if Shittu can show improvement from last season, he has an outside shot at making the final roster. At the very least, he can earn a 2-way contract, either with the Bulls or elsewhere.

What to Watch For

One important thing to remember when watching Summer League games is to not overreact. Players like Serge Ibaka, Danny Green, and Nicolas Batum all struggled in Summer League but wound up being quality players. On the other hand, Denzel Valentine looked like a future star en route to a Bulls Summer League championship win in 2016. Anyone who watched the Bulls last season knows how that turned out.

So, what should we look for in Summer League games? The answer’s simple: Flashes. For players who are basically roster locks, like Patrick Williams and Marko Simonovic, we should look for signs of improvement from last season. For the fringe roster players, fans and coaches will be looking for what these players could contribute to the 15-man roster.

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