With the playoffs almost over and the Draft Lottery finished, it feels like a good time to assess the teams that look like future playoff threats and the ones that look like their contending days are over (assuming they ever started). Buckle in, because we’re about to start a deep dive into the future of the NBA.
Trending Down: Indiana Pacers
Just a few years ago, the Pacers looked like a team on the rise with a superstar-in-the-making in Victor Oladipo, two young, developing big men in Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis, a talented guard in free-agent signing Malcolm Brogdon, and a respected head coach in Nate McMillan. However, they fired McMillan after a few disappointing playoff exits and then… missed the playoffs this season. McMillan’s replacement, Nate Bjorkgren, was fired, and Oladipo was traded to the Rockets as part of the four-team James Harden megadeal before he was shipped to the Miami Heat. The Pacers got back Caris LeVert in the deal, who played well this season in a limited sample size. LeVert, Brogdon, Sabonis, and Turner are all talented players, but none of them are good enough to lead this team on a deep playoff run. At best, this team looks like it’ll be stuck in playoff limbo for the next few years. They could also look to blow this team up and get a treasure trove of picks and/or young assets, similar to what Sam Presti has done for the OKC Thunder. The team doesn’t have a clear direction, and I don’t see them contending any time soon unless one of their players develops into a true superstar.
Trending Up: New York Knicks
The Knicks were the biggest surprise in the NBA this season, as head coach Tom Thibodeau took a team that didn’t seem to have much talent to the #4 seed in the East. Despite their disappointing first-round series against the Hawks, the Knicks look set up for a bright future as they have several good, young players in RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickly, and Most Improved Player winner Julius Randle. They also have the most cap space in the NBA this season and five first-round picks (three of their own and two from the Mavericks as part of the Kristaps Porzingis trade) in the next 3 years. Whether they sign a superstar or trade for one, they have the assets to do so. The city of New York should have a very good basketball team for the foreseeable future, and I’m not talking about the team in Brooklyn.
Trending Down: Dallas Mavericks
On the opposite end of the Porzingis trade are the Dallas Mavericks. It looked like a steal at the time, as Porzingis’s unique skillset made him one of the league’s most enticing players. However, as the playoffs showed this year, Porzinigs has seriously regressed since his time in the Big Apple. Outside of Luka Doncic, who’s played himself into the best player in the league conversation, Dallas’s first-round picks haven’t panned out. In the past week, the Mavericks parted ways with general manager Donnie Nelson and championship-winning head coach Rick Carlisle. Tensions are reportedly high in the organization, with both Porzingis and Doncic wanting out. A team that looked like it had an extremely bright future just a few months ago is now facing uncertainty going forward. Their one hope is that, while trading Porzingis at this point probably wouldn’t get them much, a potential Doncic trade could net the Mavs an unprecedented return. There really isn’t any modern-era precedent for a trade that sends away a superstar player who hasn’t even entered his prime. In all likelihood, it would greatly eclipse the James Harden trade, as Harden is 31 years old. If Dallas plays their cards right, they can somewhat rebound from losing Doncic, but that’s a MASSIVE if and, for the time being, Dallas has one of the most uncertain futures in the NBA.
Trending Up: Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta looked dead in the water as recently as early this season. But after firing head coach Lloyd Pierce and having then-assistant Nate McMillan replace him, Atlanta completely turned their season around, making the playoffs as the 5th seed in the east. On the way to the Eastern Conference Finals, Trae Young has looked like a superstar. Big men John Collins and Clint Capela have been exceptional, and their role players (Bogdan Bogdanovic, Lou Williams, Danilo Gallinari, and Kevin Huerter) have all played well. 2019 first-round pick De’Andre Hunter looked like a good contributor before undergoing season-ending meniscus surgery. Overall, this team looks like a playoff contender for years to come as long as they bring back McMillan and Collins. Collins’ impending free agency is the one question mark for this team, as they may be reluctant to hand him a max or near-max level contract. They’re not expected to have much cap space this offseason, and Trae Young will be eligible for an extension. Trae will obviously be Atlanta’s top priority this offseason, so Collins may end up bering the odd man out. Should they choose to let Collins walk (or move him in a sign-and-trade), 2020 first-round pick Onyeka Okongwu, who has shown flashes, may be able to fill his role. Either way, the future is extremely bright in Atlanta.
Trending Down: Portland Trail Blazers
For the past few years, the Blazers have entered the season as a team that can “finally get healthy” and possibly win the West, with Damian Lillard being a dark horse MVP candidate. However, every year, they’ve fallen well short of expectations, most recently losing to the Denver Nuggets in the first round. Following this loss, the Blazers fired long-time head coach Terry Stotts, and unless they can appease Lillard, a major rebuild looks likely. Even if they manage to keep Lillard, they’re likely to move on from some combination of CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, and Robert Covington. In addition, Zach Collins, Enes Kanter, and Carmelo Anthony are all free agents, and Norman Powell is all but guaranteed to decline his player option. No matter what happens this offseason, it’s hard to see the Blazers getting significantly better. Conversely, it’s easy to see things falling apart for them.
Trending Up: Chicago Bulls
The Bulls looked like a complete rebuilding team heading into the season. But after the continued emergence of Zach LaVine and the mid-season trade for Nikola Vucevic, Chicago’s a team that’s ready to win now. Sure, they disappointed after the trade deadline, but Billy Donovan’s team faced a myriad of injuries and an extended absence from LaVine. We saw flashes of the pick-and-pop game from Vucevic and Coby White, and that should only improve with LaVine taking White’s place. The X-factor for this team is 2020 first-round pick Patrick Williams, who showed flashes of star potential during the season as a versatile scorer and talented defender. If Williams can take a second-year leap, this Bulls team could be dangerous, especially if they retain key role players like Daniel Theis and Thaddeus Young. Ideally, this team acquires a good, starting-caliber point guard this offseason, as that position was a large need all throughout the season. With a full offseason to work together as a team (though White underwent offseason shoulder surgery and will likely miss the entire offseason and the beginning of the regular season), the Bulls should easily surpass their 31-41 record.
Trending Down: Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers had the best record in the Eastern Conference this season, which seemed to indicate that their past struggles were behind them thanks to first-year head coach Doc Rivers. However, many of the postseason problems that have plagued Philadelphia for the past few years resurfaced in their seven-game Eastern Conference Semifinals loss to the Atlanta Hawks. Ben Simmons was a liability toward the end of games and, while he played well, Joel Embiid was once again plagued by injuries. The fact that Philly has built their team around two players who can’t shoot (though Embiid did shoot 39% from deep during the playoffs) gives this team a certain ceiling in the playoffs. Tobias Harris has been a solid third option for the Sixers, but he’s making over 37 million dollars annually over the next three seasons. Embiid, who was an MVP candidate before dealing with injuries this season, deserves every penny of his contract. However, Ben Simmons is also making $36M/year over the next four years, which seems like a massive overpay for a point guard who can’t shoot and who hasn’t seemed aggressive at the rim as of late. It’s hard to see Philadelphia winning anything with their current roster, but it’s also hard to see how they could improve this team going forward. If Simmons somehow develops a jump shot, he’s a top 10 player in the league, but we’ve been saying that for several years now. If one person’s willing to make bold front office moves, it’s Daryl Morey, so I won’t be surprised if Philly’s roster looks very different by the time next season starts.
Trending Up: Washington Wizards
At first glance, the Wizards don’t look like a team that’s trending up. They made the playoffs as the 8 seed and only won one game against the 76ers despite Joel Embiid being hurt. But I think this team has the potential to be better than they were this year. For starters, they got off to a very slow start this season before getting hot late. If they can replicate their late-season success over the course of next season, there’s a chance they could crack the top half of the Eastern Conference. Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal aren’t perfect, but they’re both perennial All-Star candidates, and Westbrook was, in my opinion, the biggest snub from the All-NBA teams this season (he averaged a triple-double! What more do they want him to do?). In addition, they have a few young players, like Daniel Gafford, Deni Avdija, and Rui Hachimura, who could all develop into quality contributors next season (honestly, Gafford’s already there). They’ll also be boosted by the return of Center/Forward Thomas Bryant, who was having a very good season before tearing his ACL in early January. Finally, they have the chance to replace head coach Scott Brooks with either Rick Carslile, who won the 2011 Finals with the Dallas Mavericks, or a slew of young candidates like Chanucey Billups and Spurs assistant Becky Hammon. Look for the Wizards to make some noise next season.
Trending Down: Boston Celtics
Like most of the trending down teams I’ve written about, the Celtics have been marred by disappointing playoff runs in the past few seasons. Making the Eastern Conference Finals 3 times in the last 5 years is impressive, but Boston hasn’t made the Finals in any of those years. Usually the Celtics look like a powerhouse in the regular season just to lose late in the playoffs. This year, however, Boston limped through the regular season, ultimately making the playoffs as the 7 seed before losing to the Brooklyn Nets in 5 games. This offseason, they parted ways with longtime president of basketball operations Danny Ainge and promoted head coach Brad Stevens to Ainge’s position. Stevens’ first move in his new role was to trade Kemba Walker and bring back Al Horford. It’s clear that Stevens isn’t afraid to change up Boston’s roster, and I’d expect the Celtics to make more significant moves (maybe trading Marcus Smart?) this offseason. I like the addition of Horford (and the fact that the trade cleared up nearly $10M in cap space), but I don’t see it significantly improving the Celtics’ roster. With Boston’s sticky cap situation and lack of draft assets outside of their own, it’s hard to see a roster overhaul that’s big enough to propel this team into the upper echelon of Eastern Conference teams.
Trending Up: Charlotte Hornets
Let’s get one thing clear: Anthony Edwards should’ve had a better share of the Rookie of the Year voting. He had a very good rookie season that was overshadowed by Minnesota’s continued mediocrity and the media’s focus on LaMelo Ball. That being said, Ball, when fully healthy, was incredible this season. Before the draft, I didn’t think he’d be a great NBA player, but I’ll eat my words now. Not that he cares, but he completely proved me wrong. If he continues on his current trajectory, Ball can be a franchise cornerstone for the Hornets. But Charlotte didn’t get carried by LaMelo into the play-in. Though we really didn’t see a fully healthy Hornets team for most of the season, Devonte’ Graham, Malik Monk, 2018 first-round pick Miles Bridges, 2019 first-rounder P.J. Washington, and former Celtics Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward all played important roles this year. The Hornets have built a young, talented roster that they’ll look to develop over the next few seasons. While they were haunted by bad contracts for what felt like forever, the end of Cody Zeller’s 4-year, 56 million dollar contract seems to be the end of that era (I really hope I didn’t just jinx the Hornets’ offseason). As long as this young core continues to develop, the Hornets should soon be a force in the Eastern Conference.
Trending Down: New Orleans Pelicans
If there’s one thing the Pelicans have done well over the last ten years (and they haven’t been good at much), it’s wasting extremely talented players. After failing to build a true contender around 2012 #1 overall pick Anthony Davis, New Orleans traded him to the Lakers in 2019. They gained several young assets in return, like Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball, and then the #1 overall pick in the 2019 draft somehow fell into their laps (side note: why couldn’t the Bulls have had that kind of luck in the lottery this year?). The Pels drafted Zion Williamson with that pick, and while he was plagued with injuries during his rookie year, he came back strong this season, becoming the dominant player we expected him to be coming into the draft. However, the Pelicans put a very… confusing roster around Zion this season. They willingly paired their star player whose main weakness is shooting with Steven Adams (1 make on 13 career three-point attempts) and Eric Bledsoe (career 33.7% shooter from beyond the arc). Now, after a disappointing season that ended with head coach Stan Van Gundy losing his job, Zion reportedly wants out of New Orleans. Yikes. With Lonzo Ball hitting restricted free agency and Zion’s future unclear, the Pelicans could quickly become one of the worst teams in the NBA. To add insult to injury, they have another four years and $130M committed to Brandon Ingram. Ingram’s a talented scorer, but if the Pelicans’ key players depart soon, that contract will look very bad. Despite their stars, New Orleans might have one of the league’s worst situations.
Stats via Basketball Reference
Cap and contract figures via Spotrac