Is Zach LaVine Worth a Max Contract?

Many fans and experts have argued that Zach LaVine should not receive max-contract money. This concern stems primarily stems from his recent knee injury. LaVine has been bothered by his surgically-repaired left knee since mid-January this season. This discomfort led LaVine to miss 13 games while looking like a shell of his usual self in others. Some have used this decline in play to justify not giving LaVine a new contract. Others argue that the nagging knee injury is too much of a risk for a max player.

First of all, using injured play to bash LaVine — or any player, for that matter — is a bad idea. Plenty of players have struggled while dealing with injuries just to return to their prior form when healthy. LaVine, like many other players, has already come back (and even improved) since a big knee injury. In addition, despite some fans having durability concerns, LaVine has only missed an average of 13.5 regular season games/year since his injury-shortened 2017-18 season. Numerous stars who aren’t generally considered “injury-prone” — including LeBron James, Jrue Holiday, Jimmy Butler, and Kyle Lowry — have missed more time than LaVine over the past four years.

Finally, some believe that LaVine isn’t good enough for a max contract, but that simply isn’t true. Plenty of teams give max contracts to players at or below Zach’s level of play. Tobias Harris, Michael Porter Jr., Andrew Wiggins, CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Jamal Murray, and De’Aaron Fox have all recently signed maximum contracts. Can you confidently say any of those players are better than Zach? In my opinion, they are, at best, at the same level as LaVine, and thus, he should be compensated similarly.

However, the big question isn’t if the Bulls should re-sign Zach, it’s if they will. Let’s look at this from both the player/agent and front office sides.

The Zach LaVine Side

The primary reason Zach LaVine — and agent Rich Paul — should want to stay in Chicago is simple: Money. The Bulls hold Zach’s Bird Rights, which means that they can offer him more money than any other team. It also means that they can go over the salary cap to re-sign him, a luxury not afforded to any other team competing for his services. Basically, if LaVine’s contract decision is all about money, the Bulls are his best landing spot.

Moreover, the Bulls’ recent success should incentivize Zach LaVine to stay in Chicago. Thanks to the team’s recent roster additions, the Bulls made the playoffs this season for the first time during his Bulls tenure. Though the team crumbled after the All-Star break, the team’s play in the early months of the season offers a glimpse into its upside. Out of the teams that both have the ability to bring in LaVine and would want to add him, not many offer the same success as the Bulls. The Bulls’ recent additions show a commitment to winning, and if Zach values that, he’ll seriously consider staying in Chicago.

The Front Office Side

The Bulls’ recent roster moves don’t just show a commitment to winning — they show a commitment to Zach LaVine. The roster is, in theory, built around Zach LaVine. This Bulls team, when healthy, is able to maximize his strengths while hiding his weaknesses. Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball, the team’s two most important perimeter defenders, missed significant time this season. When they’re on the court with LaVine, they hide his defensive weaknesses. We saw this earlier this season before Ball went down with an eventually season-ending knee injury. Meanwhile, veteran scorers DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic help take the scoring load off of LaVine. (Well, Vucevic wasn’t very effect this season, but hopefully that changes next year.) If the Bulls didn’t believe in Zach LaVine long-term, they wouldn’t have invested money and draft capital into these players.

The Bulls’ front office continues to emphasize that they are committed to Zach LaVine long-term. Asked about LaVine on Friday, president of basketball operations Artūras Karnišovas expressed confidence in the 27-year-old guard, saying, “I hope he’s here for a long time.” Though interviews don’t always mean much, the front office has never indicated anything other than wanting LaVine in a Bulls uniform for the foreseeable future.

Final Thoughts

Though Zach LaVine is likely to test the free-agent waters, a return to Chicago is beneficial to both sides. He’s part of the Bulls’ long-term plans, and at only 27 years old, he still has a long playing career ahead of him. So, in all likelihood, Zach LaVine has not played his last game in a Chicago Bulls uniform.

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Starter-Like Minutes

Four players — Lonzo Ball, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic — should consistently play 30-34 minutes per game on a healthy Bulls team. Currently, all four are averaging at least 33.9 min/game. This number should decrease once the team is fully healthy.

Once the Chicago Bulls’ rotation is back to what it was meant to be, I wouldn’t be surprised if LaVine and DeRozan see slight minutes decreases. LaVine is dealing with a lingering knee injury, so he may need more rest down the stretch. DeRozan, who averaged 38.5 minutes/game in February, could also use a break

Furthermore, Ball and Vucevic may get more time on the bench than originally planned for this season. The surprise emergence of rookie Ayo Dosunmu as a strong defender and capable facilitator will force Billy Donovan to give him minutes (more on that later). This should, in turn, take out a small chunk of Ball’s workload. In addition, the Bulls recently brought in veteran big man Tristan Thompson. This could lead to a slight minutes reduction for Vucevic, who averaged over 35 minutes/game in February. The team may want to give Vucevic, 31, some much-needed rest before (hopefully) embarking on a deep playoff run.

Consistent Playing Time

This is where things start to get interesting. The Bulls have three bench guards — Alex Caruso, Coby White, and Ayo Dosunmu — who should all get a good share of minutes during any given game. This will likely force Billy Donovan to use three guard lineups at some point. This strategy worked very well for Donovan in his last year in Oklahoma City. There, he utilized lineups featuring a three-headed-monster of Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Dennis Schroder.

Patrick Williams will, when healthy, start for the Bulls. But how many minutes does he get, especially if he struggles early on? He’s a talented player, but he’s also a second-year player coming off an injury. Last year’s iteration of the team could afford to give Williams crucial minutes for development’s sake. However, as a team with championship aspirations, the Bulls may give Williams a short leash with other options waiting.

The Bulls have several starting options if Williams struggles. Though Derrick Jones Jr. and Javonte Green haven’t exactly been superstars in Williams’ absence, they’ve filled in admirably. Defense and athleticism have been Williams’ calling card in the NBA, as his shooting has yet to become consistent. Green and Jones provide similar skillsets, which bodes well for lineup versatility. Ideally, Williams looks like his pre-injury self (or perhaps an even better version of that player). In that case, this logjam at the 4 becomes a much better problem to have. An improved Patrick Williams could be the missing piece for this Bulls team.

Finally, Tristan Thompson should see the floor for a consistent amount of time each night. Though he likely won’t dig too far into Nikola Vucevic’s minutes, his only real competition for backup reps is Tony Bradley. Bradley, in the few games Thompson has played for the Bulls, has seemingly exited the rotation.

Out of the Rotation

There are three players who have played significant minutes at one point or another this season who I expect to become reserves once the team is healthy: Troy Brown Jr., Matt Thomas, and Tony Bradley.

Tony Bradley has caught a lot of negative attention from Bulls fans as an ineffective backup to Nikola Vucevic, but he actually performed well defensively at times. Opposing players shot 17% worse within 6 feet of the rim when Bradley was on the floor. Though Bradley’s sample size is obviously much smaller, that mark is better than some of the league’s best defenders, including Jarrett Allen (-15%), Jaren Jackson Jr. (-13.7%), and Rudy Gobert (-11.1%). However, barring an injury to Vucevic or Tristan Thompson, Bradley lacks a clear path to playing time on the Bulls this season.

Entering this season, Troy Brown Jr. had the potential to be a key bench player for Chicago. Despite flashes of quality play, Brown has been inconsistent this season. Like Tony Bradley, barring injury, he just doesn’t have a place on a team with hopes of making a deep playoff run, especially one with as deep of a roster as the Bulls have.

Lastly, we have Matt Thomas, arguably the most-hated player on the Bulls this season. Despite shooting 38% from beyond the arc, Thomas’s season has been marred by poor, almost Denzel Valentine-esque shot selection and sub-turnstile-level defense. Hopefully, once this Bulls team is healthy, Thomas won’t see the floor outside of 20+ point blowouts. As a 6’4″ guard, he doesn’t even fit a positional need depth-wise, since, as I stated earlier, the Bulls already have a lot of mouths to feed at guard.

Final Thoughts

Overall, the return of the Bulls’ injured players should provide a much-needed spark down the stretch. Not only will they solve some of the team’s defensive woes, but they should also help highlight the Bulls’ strong depth.

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On the second day of NBA free agency, Arturas Karnisovas and the Chicago Bulls continued to make moves, agreeing to a sign-and-trade with the San Antonio Spurs for four-time All-Star DeMar DeRozan. The Bulls not only handed DeRozan a hefty contract but gave up significant assets to acquire him. Let’s break down the contract, the trade, and what this move means for the Bulls going forward.

The Contract

DeMar DeRozan will make $28M/year with the Bulls, putting him on par with players like De’Aaron Fox, Bam Adebayo, Donovan Mitchell, and Jayson Tatum. On an annual basis, he’ll be the highest-paid player on the Bulls roster (unless Zach LaVine signs a maximum contract extension). Those numbers can seem scary, especially when considering the fact that DeRozan will be 34 by the time the contract ends. However, he hasn’t shown any signs of decline, and his 6.9 assists per game was a career high, which shows that he may be aging gracefully. The deal may seem like an overpay, but in the NBA, teams often have to overpay for talent, and DeRozan is definitely a talented player.

The Trade

Two things that Shams didn’t note: (1) The Bulls also sent the Spurs Al-Farouq Aminu, and (2) the first-round pick is reportedly top-10 protected in 2025. That makes the trade a little more palatable. Still, giving up multiple picks and Thaddeus Young is a LOT for DeMar DeRozan. Young was one of the Bulls’ best players last season, and he was expected to be a major contributor for the Bulls off the bench. If the Bulls are good (which it looks like they will be), the picks won’t be all too valuable, but it’s still a lot of assets for a sign-and-trade.

Getting rid of Aminu’s contract is huge for the Bulls, however. Aminu and Young combined for a $24M cap hit this season, so with DeRozan’s cap hit at $27M this season, the Bulls are only adding $3M against the cap. Those savings are huge for a team that still needs to fill out the roster (6 open roster spots) despite being over the salary cap. Young’s abilities as a facilitator and defender will be sorely missed on the Bulls, but his contract expires after this season and, with the contracts currently on the books, it would’ve been hard to retain him anyway. The trade was an overpay, but it’s not the end of the world.

DeMar DeRozan’s Fit with the Bulls: The Negatives

DeRozan’s primary purpose in the NBA has always been scoring. Over the past 8 seasons, he’s averaged 22.8 points per game. That’s not really something the Bulls need, as Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic 23 or more PPG this season. LaVine and DeRozan are both relatively ball-dominant, so head coach Billy Donovan will have to find a balance between the two that maximizes scoring efficiency.

In addition, DeRozan, LaVine, and Vucevic are all liabilities defensively, which could make the Bulls hard to watch when they don’t have possession of the ball. The Bulls’ defensive burden will have to be shouldered by Lonzo Ball and the 20-year-old Patrick Williams, which is far from an ideal situation.

DeMar DeRozan’s Fit with the Bulls: The Positives

DeRozan’s fit on the Bulls may be a little questionable, but despite the myriad of scorers already on the roster, it’s never a bad thing to have several players who can drop 20 points on any given night, especially if one of the Bulls’ “big three” gets hurt. As I said earlier, DeRozan averaged a career-high 6.9 assists per game last season, and he did that while only turning the ball over twice per game (that’s tied for the fourth-best mark of his career).

Ball movement was a big need for the Bulls last season, and this move further remedies that problem. Another big problem for the Bulls last season was an inability to get to the free-throw line, and DeRozan’s always been good at that, averaging 6.4 free throw attempts per game during his career. His 7.2 FTAs per game last season would’ve easily led the Bulls last season (LaVine was first on the team with 5.1 per game, and no other player currently on the roster averaged more than 2.1 attempts per game).

DeRozan took advantage of his free throws, shooting 88% from the charity stripe last season. The only current Bull who shot better than that last season was Coby White, who made 90% of his free throw attempts (weird, random fact: Denzel Valentine made 94% of his free throws last season!). DeMar’s positional versatility (he’s played SG, SF, and PF during his career) should let him fit easily into whatever lineups Billy Donovan uses.

DeRozan’s career 28% mark from three is, to be frank, atrocious. But the Bulls’ starting lineup has four good shooters. The other four projected starters for the Bulls (Lonzo Ball, Zach LaVine, Patrick Williams, and Nikola Vucevic) shot 37.8% or better from deep last season. The Bulls’ outside shooting should be able to create enough space for DeRozan to operate inside. While he won’t have the usage he’s had in Toronto and San Antonio, the Bulls are one of the best offensive situations DeRozan could have ended up in, as his strengths and weaknesses match up nicely with the rest of the roster.

Final Thoughts

Though the deal may seem like an overpay, DeMar DeRozan should be a valuable contributor to the Chicago Bulls. Besides his stats, he brings loads of playoff experience to the team, which is extremely valuable, especially when taking into consideration the fact that Nikola Vucevic is the only other Bulls starter who has logged playoff minutes. Finally, the DeRozan signing further signals that the new Bulls front office isn’t afraid to spend or make big moves, which is a welcome change from the previous regime. In all likelihood, the Bulls aren’t done making moves, and that’s something we can all be excited about.

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Basketball is back! After a hiatus that felt much longer than 19 days, NBA basketball is being played once again. Well, Summer League basketball. For basketball fans, the Summer League is a chance to see some of the league’s exciting young talent play for the first time at the professional level. For coaches and front offices, it’s a chance to evaluate young talent and younger players on the roster bubble. As one of the NBA’s most beloved traditions begins, here’s my guide to the Chicago Bulls’ Summer League experience.

Important Dates

Sunday 8/8 – Summer league begins in Las Vegas

Monday 8/9 – Bulls vs. Pelicans

Tuesday 8/10 – Bulls @ Spurs

Thursday 8/12 – Bulls @ Timberwolves

Sunday 8/15 – Bulls vs. Grizzlies

5th Bulls game TBD

Tuesday 8/17 – Summer League Championship Game (two teams with the best records face off)

Key Players

The Bulls didn’t have a first-round pick this year, so, unlike most teams, there’s not a clear-cut player to be on the lookout for this year. However, Chicago’s Summer League roster has several exciting young players who could (or should) end up making a difference this season.

Patrick Williams, SF/PF – After a promising rookie season, Williams is expected to take a leap in his second NBA season. While he showed promise on both ends of the floor, he sometimes disappeared and lacked aggressiveness. Finding himself as the forgotten member of the new-look Bulls’ starting lineup, he’ll have to assert himself if he wants to keep up with Chicago’s new firepower. If “the Paw” can continue to improve on defense and as a playmaker, he can become a valuable asset to a Bulls lineup that is still somewhat weak defensively. Look for him to become more aggressive on offense and continue to make life hard for the other team’s best player defensively.

Marko Simonovic, PF/C – Simonovic was drafted in the 2nd round last year but played in Europe this past season, so Summer League will be his first NBA action. Overseas, he averaged 15.7 points and 9.1 rebounds per game while shooting 35% from 3. Assuming Lauri Markkanen isn’t on Chicago’s roster by the time the season starts, Simonovic will be tasked with being the team’s backup 4. Summer League will be crucial for Marko’s development and acclimation to NBA-style basketball. The front office, meanwhile, will likely focus on Simonovic’s comfort level and ability in Summer League. If he struggles, look for the team to bring in a veteran 4 and for Simonovic to be relegated to more of a developmental/bench role.

Devon Dotson, PG – After going undrafted in 2020, Dotson signed a 2-way contract with the Bulls. Despite the team being plagued by injuries during the season and the lack of depth at point guard, Dotson saw very limited time with the Bulls. When he did play, he showed flashes, but that was in an extremely small sample size. With the Bulls adding Ayo Dosunmu, Alex Caruso, and Lonzo Ball, as well as the return of Coby White, Zach LaVine, and Javonte Green, Dotson suddenly finds himself on a team that’s deep at both guard positions. If he wants to make the 15-man roster, he’ll have to show out this summer.

Ayo Dosunmu, PG/SG – The former Illinois star was drafted by the Bulls in the second round this year, making him the first Chicago native drafted by the team since Derrick Rose. Ayo was a jack-of-all-trades in college, so it’ll be interesting to see which of his skills best translate to the NBA level. Dosunmu and Devon Dotson will likely compete for a roster spot this season (I don’t see the Bulls rostering 7 guards), so Dosunmu will need to outplay Doston to earn said roster spot. Look for the Bulls Summer League team to experiment with Dosunmu as they try to figure out his fit on the roster. Though he was a good playmaker for the Illini, Ayo’s scoring was his calling card, and he has the potential to become a capable NBA scorer. Both Dotson and Dosunmu will need to take advantage of their Summer League minutes to prove to the coaching staff that they deserve playing time during the regular season.

Simi Shittu, PF/C – Shittu is a familiar name to Bulls fans who watched the preseason last year, as he looked like he could make the final 15-man roster. Shittu didn’t end up on Chicago’s roster and instead played for the G League’s Westchester Knicks, where he averaged 14.5 points and 10 rebounds per game. Shittu’s more of a traditional big man, offering rim protection and inside scoring. The Bulls lack big man depth, as well as quality rim protection, so if Shittu can show improvement from last season, he has an outside shot at making the final roster. At the very least, he can earn a 2-way contract, either with the Bulls or elsewhere.

What to Watch For

One important thing to remember when watching Summer League games is to not overreact. Players like Serge Ibaka, Danny Green, and Nicolas Batum all struggled in Summer League but wound up being quality players. On the other hand, Denzel Valentine looked like a future star en route to a Bulls Summer League championship win in 2016. Anyone who watched the Bulls last season knows how that turned out.

So, what should we look for in Summer League games? The answer’s simple: Flashes. For players who are basically roster locks, like Patrick Williams and Marko Simonovic, we should look for signs of improvement from last season. For the fringe roster players, fans and coaches will be looking for what these players could contribute to the 15-man roster.

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Let’s get one thing out of the way: Barring a trade, the Chicago Bulls won’t be getting a big name in the 2021 NBA Draft. Chicago’s first and only pick is in the second round, at #38 overall (assuming Chicago exercises its right to swap its second rounder (#40) with New Orleans). But second-round picks often become NBA contributors. Three-time NBA Champion Draymond Green was drafted with the 35th pick in 2012. Reigning MVP Nikola Jokic was drafted at #41 overall by the Denver Nuggets in 2014, when Bulls EVP of Basketball Operations Arturas Karnisovas was the assistant GM in Denver. Good teams utilize their second-rounders well, and we can only hope that the Bulls do the same.

One prospect the Bulls should look into at #38 is Quentin Grimes. The Houston product is entering the draft after his third collegiate season (he spent one season with Kansas before transferring to Houston). Let’s dive into Grimes’ strengths and weaknesses, along with his potential fit on the Bulls.

Strengths

Grimes averaged 17.8 points per game this past season. He shot 40% from 3 while averaging 8.3 attempts per game. His shooting should translate well to the NBA’s increased three-point line distance. Grimes also grabbed nearly 6 rebounds per game, which is very good for a guard.

However, the biggest part of Grimes’ game is his impact on the defensive end. Grimes was a key cog of Houston’s defense, which was one of the best in the country. His quick feet and 6’8″ wingspan give him the ability to defend pull-up shooters and contest shots at the rim. His advanced stats, like his 2.4 defensive win shares and 2.9 defensive box plus-minus, further show that he had a terrific defensive season last year. At the NBA level, he should be able to guard both types of guards and small forwards without too much trouble, though bigger forwards could give him trouble.

Weaknesses

Despite his terrific shooting from deep, Grimes only shot 41% from inside the arc. That’s… not ideal. He can’t seem to get to the rim despite his relative size, which forces him to take awkward shots. He was also unable to draw many fouls, only averaging 3.8 free throw attempts per game. He made 78.8% of the free throws he did attempt, which isn’t terrible but also isn’t ideal for a combo guard.

The biggest concern with Grimes is his playmaking. He only averaged 2 assists per game last season, which is pretty low for any player with a high usage rate, much less a guard. His 1.07 assist-to-turnover ratio shows that he didn’t do much offensively outside of scoring. His limitations as a ball handler make it tough for him to create for his teammates.

Grimes’ Fit With the Bulls

The Bulls were bad defensively last season and lacked consistent outside shooting outside of Zach LaVine. Grimes could fill both of these needs very well. His defensive chops could help mask LaVine’s defense, and his shooting would help create spacing for both LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. However, the Bulls’ biggest need this offseason is a point guard who can help create on offense, and barring a lot of development (which isn’t out of the question with head coach Billy Donovan, who’s known as a point guard whisperer), Grimes isn’t that player.

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Trending Down: Indiana Pacers

Just a few years ago, the Pacers looked like a team on the rise with a superstar-in-the-making in Victor Oladipo, two young, developing big men in Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis, a talented guard in free-agent signing Malcolm Brogdon, and a respected head coach in Nate McMillan. However, they fired McMillan after a few disappointing playoff exits and then… missed the playoffs this season. McMillan’s replacement, Nate Bjorkgren, was fired, and Oladipo was traded to the Rockets as part of the four-team James Harden megadeal before he was shipped to the Miami Heat. The Pacers got back Caris LeVert in the deal, who played well this season in a limited sample size. LeVert, Brogdon, Sabonis, and Turner are all talented players, but none of them are good enough to lead this team on a deep playoff run. At best, this team looks like it’ll be stuck in playoff limbo for the next few years. They could also look to blow this team up and get a treasure trove of picks and/or young assets, similar to what Sam Presti has done for the OKC Thunder. The team doesn’t have a clear direction, and I don’t see them contending any time soon unless one of their players develops into a true superstar.

Trending Up: New York Knicks

The Knicks were the biggest surprise in the NBA this season, as head coach Tom Thibodeau took a team that didn’t seem to have much talent to the #4 seed in the East. Despite their disappointing first-round series against the Hawks, the Knicks look set up for a bright future as they have several good, young players in RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickly, and Most Improved Player winner Julius Randle. They also have the most cap space in the NBA this season and five first-round picks (three of their own and two from the Mavericks as part of the Kristaps Porzingis trade) in the next 3 years. Whether they sign a superstar or trade for one, they have the assets to do so. The city of New York should have a very good basketball team for the foreseeable future, and I’m not talking about the team in Brooklyn.

Trending Down: Dallas Mavericks

On the opposite end of the Porzingis trade are the Dallas Mavericks. It looked like a steal at the time, as Porzingis’s unique skillset made him one of the league’s most enticing players. However, as the playoffs showed this year, Porzinigs has seriously regressed since his time in the Big Apple. Outside of Luka Doncic, who’s played himself into the best player in the league conversation, Dallas’s first-round picks haven’t panned out. In the past week, the Mavericks parted ways with general manager Donnie Nelson and championship-winning head coach Rick Carlisle. Tensions are reportedly high in the organization, with both Porzingis and Doncic wanting out. A team that looked like it had an extremely bright future just a few months ago is now facing uncertainty going forward. Their one hope is that, while trading Porzingis at this point probably wouldn’t get them much, a potential Doncic trade could net the Mavs an unprecedented return. There really isn’t any modern-era precedent for a trade that sends away a superstar player who hasn’t even entered his prime. In all likelihood, it would greatly eclipse the James Harden trade, as Harden is 31 years old. If Dallas plays their cards right, they can somewhat rebound from losing Doncic, but that’s a MASSIVE if and, for the time being, Dallas has one of the most uncertain futures in the NBA.

Trending Up: Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta looked dead in the water as recently as early this season. But after firing head coach Lloyd Pierce and having then-assistant Nate McMillan replace him, Atlanta completely turned their season around, making the playoffs as the 5th seed in the east. On the way to the Eastern Conference Finals, Trae Young has looked like a superstar. Big men John Collins and Clint Capela have been exceptional, and their role players (Bogdan Bogdanovic, Lou Williams, Danilo Gallinari, and Kevin Huerter) have all played well. 2019 first-round pick De’Andre Hunter looked like a good contributor before undergoing season-ending meniscus surgery. Overall, this team looks like a playoff contender for years to come as long as they bring back McMillan and Collins. Collins’ impending free agency is the one question mark for this team, as they may be reluctant to hand him a max or near-max level contract. They’re not expected to have much cap space this offseason, and Trae Young will be eligible for an extension. Trae will obviously be Atlanta’s top priority this offseason, so Collins may end up bering the odd man out. Should they choose to let Collins walk (or move him in a sign-and-trade), 2020 first-round pick Onyeka Okongwu, who has shown flashes, may be able to fill his role. Either way, the future is extremely bright in Atlanta.

Trending Down: Portland Trail Blazers

For the past few years, the Blazers have entered the season as a team that can “finally get healthy” and possibly win the West, with Damian Lillard being a dark horse MVP candidate. However, every year, they’ve fallen well short of expectations, most recently losing to the Denver Nuggets in the first round. Following this loss, the Blazers fired long-time head coach Terry Stotts, and unless they can appease Lillard, a major rebuild looks likely. Even if they manage to keep Lillard, they’re likely to move on from some combination of CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, and Robert Covington. In addition, Zach Collins, Enes Kanter, and Carmelo Anthony are all free agents, and Norman Powell is all but guaranteed to decline his player option. No matter what happens this offseason, it’s hard to see the Blazers getting significantly better. Conversely, it’s easy to see things falling apart for them.

Trending Up: Chicago Bulls

The Bulls looked like a complete rebuilding team heading into the season. But after the continued emergence of Zach LaVine and the mid-season trade for Nikola Vucevic, Chicago’s a team that’s ready to win now. Sure, they disappointed after the trade deadline, but Billy Donovan’s team faced a myriad of injuries and an extended absence from LaVine. We saw flashes of the pick-and-pop game from Vucevic and Coby White, and that should only improve with LaVine taking White’s place. The X-factor for this team is 2020 first-round pick Patrick Williams, who showed flashes of star potential during the season as a versatile scorer and talented defender. If Williams can take a second-year leap, this Bulls team could be dangerous, especially if they retain key role players like Daniel Theis and Thaddeus Young. Ideally, this team acquires a good, starting-caliber point guard this offseason, as that position was a large need all throughout the season. With a full offseason to work together as a team (though White underwent offseason shoulder surgery and will likely miss the entire offseason and the beginning of the regular season), the Bulls should easily surpass their 31-41 record.

Trending Down: Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers had the best record in the Eastern Conference this season, which seemed to indicate that their past struggles were behind them thanks to first-year head coach Doc Rivers. However, many of the postseason problems that have plagued Philadelphia for the past few years resurfaced in their seven-game Eastern Conference Semifinals loss to the Atlanta Hawks. Ben Simmons was a liability toward the end of games and, while he played well, Joel Embiid was once again plagued by injuries. The fact that Philly has built their team around two players who can’t shoot (though Embiid did shoot 39% from deep during the playoffs) gives this team a certain ceiling in the playoffs. Tobias Harris has been a solid third option for the Sixers, but he’s making over 37 million dollars annually over the next three seasons. Embiid, who was an MVP candidate before dealing with injuries this season, deserves every penny of his contract. However, Ben Simmons is also making $36M/year over the next four years, which seems like a massive overpay for a point guard who can’t shoot and who hasn’t seemed aggressive at the rim as of late. It’s hard to see Philadelphia winning anything with their current roster, but it’s also hard to see how they could improve this team going forward. If Simmons somehow develops a jump shot, he’s a top 10 player in the league, but we’ve been saying that for several years now. If one person’s willing to make bold front office moves, it’s Daryl Morey, so I won’t be surprised if Philly’s roster looks very different by the time next season starts.

Trending Up: Washington Wizards

At first glance, the Wizards don’t look like a team that’s trending up. They made the playoffs as the 8 seed and only won one game against the 76ers despite Joel Embiid being hurt. But I think this team has the potential to be better than they were this year. For starters, they got off to a very slow start this season before getting hot late. If they can replicate their late-season success over the course of next season, there’s a chance they could crack the top half of the Eastern Conference. Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal aren’t perfect, but they’re both perennial All-Star candidates, and Westbrook was, in my opinion, the biggest snub from the All-NBA teams this season (he averaged a triple-double! What more do they want him to do?). In addition, they have a few young players, like Daniel Gafford, Deni Avdija, and Rui Hachimura, who could all develop into quality contributors next season (honestly, Gafford’s already there). They’ll also be boosted by the return of Center/Forward Thomas Bryant, who was having a very good season before tearing his ACL in early January. Finally, they have the chance to replace head coach Scott Brooks with either Rick Carslile, who won the 2011 Finals with the Dallas Mavericks, or a slew of young candidates like Chanucey Billups and Spurs assistant Becky Hammon. Look for the Wizards to make some noise next season.

Trending Down: Boston Celtics

Like most of the trending down teams I’ve written about, the Celtics have been marred by disappointing playoff runs in the past few seasons. Making the Eastern Conference Finals 3 times in the last 5 years is impressive, but Boston hasn’t made the Finals in any of those years. Usually the Celtics look like a powerhouse in the regular season just to lose late in the playoffs. This year, however, Boston limped through the regular season, ultimately making the playoffs as the 7 seed before losing to the Brooklyn Nets in 5 games. This offseason, they parted ways with longtime president of basketball operations Danny Ainge and promoted head coach Brad Stevens to Ainge’s position. Stevens’ first move in his new role was to trade Kemba Walker and bring back Al Horford. It’s clear that Stevens isn’t afraid to change up Boston’s roster, and I’d expect the Celtics to make more significant moves (maybe trading Marcus Smart?) this offseason. I like the addition of Horford (and the fact that the trade cleared up nearly $10M in cap space), but I don’t see it significantly improving the Celtics’ roster. With Boston’s sticky cap situation and lack of draft assets outside of their own, it’s hard to see a roster overhaul that’s big enough to propel this team into the upper echelon of Eastern Conference teams.

Trending Up: Charlotte Hornets

Let’s get one thing clear: Anthony Edwards should’ve had a better share of the Rookie of the Year voting. He had a very good rookie season that was overshadowed by Minnesota’s continued mediocrity and the media’s focus on LaMelo Ball. That being said, Ball, when fully healthy, was incredible this season. Before the draft, I didn’t think he’d be a great NBA player, but I’ll eat my words now. Not that he cares, but he completely proved me wrong. If he continues on his current trajectory, Ball can be a franchise cornerstone for the Hornets. But Charlotte didn’t get carried by LaMelo into the play-in. Though we really didn’t see a fully healthy Hornets team for most of the season, Devonte’ Graham, Malik Monk, 2018 first-round pick Miles Bridges, 2019 first-rounder P.J. Washington, and former Celtics Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward all played important roles this year. The Hornets have built a young, talented roster that they’ll look to develop over the next few seasons. While they were haunted by bad contracts for what felt like forever, the end of Cody Zeller’s 4-year, 56 million dollar contract seems to be the end of that era (I really hope I didn’t just jinx the Hornets’ offseason). As long as this young core continues to develop, the Hornets should soon be a force in the Eastern Conference.

Trending Down: New Orleans Pelicans

If there’s one thing the Pelicans have done well over the last ten years (and they haven’t been good at much), it’s wasting extremely talented players. After failing to build a true contender around 2012 #1 overall pick Anthony Davis, New Orleans traded him to the Lakers in 2019. They gained several young assets in return, like Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball, and then the #1 overall pick in the 2019 draft somehow fell into their laps (side note: why couldn’t the Bulls have had that kind of luck in the lottery this year?). The Pels drafted Zion Williamson with that pick, and while he was plagued with injuries during his rookie year, he came back strong this season, becoming the dominant player we expected him to be coming into the draft. However, the Pelicans put a very… confusing roster around Zion this season. They willingly paired their star player whose main weakness is shooting with Steven Adams (1 make on 13 career three-point attempts) and Eric Bledsoe (career 33.7% shooter from beyond the arc). Now, after a disappointing season that ended with head coach Stan Van Gundy losing his job, Zion reportedly wants out of New Orleans. Yikes. With Lonzo Ball hitting restricted free agency and Zion’s future unclear, the Pelicans could quickly become one of the worst teams in the NBA. To add insult to injury, they have another four years and $130M committed to Brandon Ingram. Ingram’s a talented scorer, but if the Pelicans’ key players depart soon, that contract will look very bad. Despite their stars, New Orleans might have one of the league’s worst situations.

Stats via Basketball Reference
Cap and contract figures via Spotrac

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This evening, the three All-NBA teams were announced:

There’s a lot to talk about here, so let’s dive right in.

Honorable Mentions

Before we get started, I’d like to acknowledge some players who didn’t make the All-NBA teams but had great seasons. They aren’t necessarily players who I think should have made an All-NBA team, but their seasons should still be appreciated.

Guards: Donovan Mitchell, Devin Booker, Russell Westbrook, Trae Young, Zach LaVine (more on him later)

Forwards: Jayson Tatum, DeMar DeRozan, Domantas Sabonis

Center: Nikola Vucevic, Bam Adebayo

Biggest Surprises

Looking at these teams, specifically the Third Team, two players stood out to me: Bradley Beal and Jimmy Butler.

Beal had another great scoring season for the Washington Wizards, averaging 31.3 points per game. However, he didn’t contribute much outside of that, only averaging 4.4 assists and 4.7 rebounds while not exactly being a defensive star. He’s a great player, but with the other great guards who had more well-rounded stats and contributed to more wins, did his season really make the cut? Beal’s an outstanding player, but an argument could be made for players like Trae Young, Jayson Tatum (who was on the All-NBA ballot as both a guard and a forward), and Beal’s teammate, Mr. Triple-Double himself, Russell Westbrook.

Jimmy Butler was, once again, the best player on the Miami Heat. He was one of the league’s best defenders (he made the All-Defensive Second Team) but often struggled on the offensive end. Butler’s three-point shooting, which was once a solid part of his game, continued to regress, as he only made 24.5% of his attempts from beyond the arc. This was actually better than his mark last season (24.4%), but it’s still terrible for a small forward.

Despite that ugly three-point shooting percentage, Butler actually produced a career year in both rebounds (6.9) and assists (7.1) per game while leading the league in steals per game (2.1). Honestly, I think Butler deserves to make the team, as he had a very good season if you ignore his three-point shooting. However, Jayson Tatum could have taken his place on the team as he averaged more points and rebounds per game while shooting much better from deep. Tatum also played in 12 more games than Butler, and I personally place a great amount of value on player availability.

Biggest “Snubs”

Before I start naming snubs, let’s get one thing out of the way: the NBA is probably the deepest it’s ever been. There’s stars everywhere, and despite so many players having great seasons this year, only 15 players can make the All-NBA teams. If it were up to me, there’d be four teams to better accommodate the growing amount of stars in the league. Also, the teams wouldn’t be restricted by position. Joel Embiid, for example, had a first-team-caliber season but was demoted to the second team because of MVP winner Nikola Jokic. I’d argue that Embiid was more deserving of first-team honors than Kawhi Leonard, but because the teams require 2 guards, 2 forwards, and 1 center, Embiid was demoted. Anyway, out of all the great players who didn’t make the All-NBA teams, here are the ones I feel had the best seasons. I’ll also make my All-NBA “Fourth Team,” following the position guidelines I outlined earlier.

Jayson Tatum, who I’ve talked about already, had a fantastic season. Despite the disappointing season the Celtics had, Tatum cemented himself as one of the league’s elite players. While he may not have the ceiling of Luka Doncic, he’s a threat to drop 50 points any night and also offers great defense and positional versatility. While the playoffs don’t count toward awards, it’s hard to ignore Tatum’s ability to keep the Celtics in most games against the Nets despite the obvious talent disparity between Brooklyn and Boston. Like Doncic, Tatum is still very young (he’s only 23!), and it’s scary to think that he could still somehow develop into an even better player. If the Celtics decide to blow it up this season, there’s only a select few other players I’d rather restart my team around.

Can we talk about Russell Westbrook’s season? After a rough playoff exit in Houston and a subsequent trade to the Washington Wizards, Russ was mostly an afterthought entering this season. But he managed to average a triple-double over an entire season AGAIN, which I don’t think we give enough credit to. Sure, they’re easier to come by in this era than ever before, but Westbrook’s compiled 184 triple-doubles in his career, whereas only 3 other players in the history of the NBA have even passed the century mark (LeBron James, who currently has 99, will likely join the century club next season). Averaging double-digit rebounds in a season as a 6’3″ guard is extremely impressive. And while Westbrook’s shooting has been the subject of a lot of criticism, his 31.5% three-point shooting this season was a significant upgrade from last season, when he shot 25.8% from deep. 31.5% is also Westbrook’s best second-best mark from deep since the 2014-15 season. Even though his contract is massive, I’d expect several teams looking to make a deep playoff run call Washington’s front office about a possible Westbrook trade.

My All-NBA “Fourth Team”

Guard: Russell Westbrook, Washington Wizards – see above
Guard: Donovan Mitchell, Utah Jazz – My first thought here was the Suns’ Devin Booker, but Mitchell’s Jazz not only had a better record than the Suns, but Mitchell actually averaged more points, rebounds, and assists per game than Booker while shooting better from deep. Booker also had the benefit of having legendary point guard Chris Paul on his team to help on both offense and defense. Mike Conley, Mitchell’s teammate, is also a great guard, but he’s not at the same level as Paul and played in 19 less games than CP3.
Forward: Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics – see above
Forward: Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat – Though Bam didn’t make as big of a leap this year as he did between 2019 and 2020, he still improved his game while contributing on a team most of us thought would contend in the playoffs. Adebayo’s calling card is his elite defensive versatility, but he also set career highs in points per game (18.7) while shooting better from the field and from the free throw line than he did last season. Sure, he’s still not a three-point shooter, but if Miami can surround him and Jimmy Butler with more consistent shooters outside of Duncan Robinson (who’s a free agent this offseason), the Heat could once again be a dangerous team in the East.
Center: Nikola Vucevic, Chicago Bulls – Did I move Bam to the forward slot just to fit Vooch in here? Yes, but with good reason. Vucevic, who was traded by the Orlando Magic at the deadline to the Bulls, had an amazing season. He averaged 24.5 PPG and 11.8 RPG while shooting 40% from deep before being traded. Though all of those numbers declined slightly after coming to Chicago, he was still a fantastic player. After having a full offseason with head coach Billy Donovan and teammates Patrick Williams and Zach LaVine, Vuceivc could put up better numbers for the Bulls next season. LaVine and Vucevic should be a very exciting duo next season.

Zach LaVine’s Place Among the NBA’s Elite

To all the Bulls fans saying LaVine was snubbed: he wasn’t. Although he had a great breakout season for the Bulls, LaVine, like third-team honoree Bradley Beal, primarily offered scoring to his team. And while LaVine was the better shooter of the two, Beal averaged nearly four more points per game while helping his team make the playoffs, something LaVine once again failed to do.

Bulls fans should still appreciate LaVine’s great season. It gives us hope that he, along with Vooch and a hopefully improved Patrick Williams, can lead the team to the playoffs for the first time in what feels like forever.

So, where does LaVine fit among all NBA players? This season cemented him as an All-Star caliber player (since he literally made the All-Star team), but I’m not ready to put him in my top 20 players. If he offered more than scoring, it’d be easier to put him up there, but there’s too many players who can contribute more than LaVine as of now. I love LaVine as a player and, based on the last few seasons, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him once again improve some aspect of his game. LaVine has the potential to make one of these All-NBA teams next season.

The post The Biggest Disappointments on the 2021 All-NBA Teams appeared first on Bulls Don't Lie.

Let’s get one thing out of the way: If I was grading this based on hair alone, Ryan Arcidiacono would get an A+. The man bun was a questionable move, but he got it together down the stretch. He continues the Bulls franchise’s storied hair history, following in the footsteps of greats such as Artis Gilmore, Dennis Rodman, Joakim Noah.

Sadly, this isn’t a hair grade. This is a season grade. And Arch’s season was one to forget. His per-game averages in points, rebounds, and assists were his lowest since his rookie year. He also shot 65% from the free throw line, which is by far the lowest mark in his career (He shot over 80% from the line in his first two seasons and shot 71% last season). He averaged 10.2 minutes per game over 44 games, which is the lowest mark in his career. The lone bright spot is his plus/minus of 0.2, which is a marked improvement from -1.4 last year and -3.1 the year before. Additionally, his 41.9 field goal percentage is in line with his 2019-20 (40.9%) and 2017-18 (41.5%) seasons, though it falls short of his career-best mark of 44.7%, which he accomplished while averaging the most attempts of his career (5.2) in the 2018-19 season.

Obviously, it’s hard to assess a player based on traditional stats when their usage is so low. His advanced stats show improvements over last season in offensive rating, net rating, and assist percentage. His 5.60 assist-to-turnover ratio is by far his best, and he had a career best 7.4 rebound percentage.

But stats don’t tell the whole story with Arch. Over the last 4 seasons, he’s brought great energy to this Bulls team despite a relative lack of success. And he’s capable of good stretches, as we all saw when he cost the Bulls their lottery odds with a win over the Bucks. He looked impressive in that game, putting up 14 points while shooting 4/4 from 3 (5/6 overall).

Ryan Arcidiacono Season Grade: C

Arcidiacono pretty much met expectations for this season. Though his role was reduced compared to previous years, that was expected with the additions of Garrett Temple and Javonte Green along with minutes increases for Coby White and (for some reason) Denzel Valentine. I don’t expect Arch to be back with the Bulls next season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if his energy and experience playing in big games (he won the college basketball championship with Villanova in 2016) lands him a role at the end of the bench for a contender.

All stats from nba.com

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Per several reports on Monday, the Chicago Bulls are interested in acquiring reigning EuroLeague MVP Vasilije Micić. Let’s analyze what they’d have to give up to get him and his potential fit on the Bulls.

How The Bulls Could Trade For Vasilije Micić

If they want to get Micić, the Bulls will have to acquire his rights from the Oklahoma City Thunder. OKC acquired Micić’s draft rights from the 76ers last offseason as part of the Al Horford trade that also netted them a 2025 first-round pick. It’s unknown what it would take for the Bulls to actually acquire Micić, as it would all depend on how the Thunder value Micić. Several ideas have been tossed around as possible trade packages, but they’ve ranged from a single second-round pick to a Lauri Markkanen sign-and-trade. It’ll all depend on how highly both Chicago and OKC value Micić, as well as what other teams may be interested in acquiring the long-time EuroLeague star.

My idea of a potential package for Micić is a second-round pick and Ryan Arcidiacono (team option). It gives the Thunder some compensation for Micić, and the Bulls take a flier on a potentially great player. The Thunder may not have much of a role available for Micić, as they already have guards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, and Theo Maledon (who they also acquired in the Horford trade).

Vasilije Micić’s agent previously said that his client will stay in Europe if he doesn’t find a quality, non-bench role in the NBA, so that may factor into OKC’s decision to either trade or keep him. Micić’s agent also represents Bulls 2020 second-round pick Marko Simonović, who is also expected to come to the States this offseason.

Micić’s fit with the Bulls is somewhat unclear. He’s a 6’6″ guard who’s not only been a decent facilitator (4.5 assists per game in his career). Micić’s agent previously stated that his client won’t go to the NBA just to be a bench player, and the Bulls already have Zach LaVine and Coby White playing at SG. One factor in Micić’s fit on the Bulls could be head coach Billy Donovan‘s tendency to use three-guard lineups. While coaching the Thunder in 2019, Donovan frequently utilized lineups featuring Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Dennis Schroeder. However, those players can all play a more traditional point guard role, whereas none of the three prospective Bulls have played that role very well.

One advantage of acquiring Vasilije Micić is that, if the front office sees him as a starting-caliber point guard, they wouldn’t have to overpay one of the free-agent point guards and could instead have the money to retain Tomas Satoransky and Thaddeus Young. Additionally, the Bulls would have $10M in cap space, which they could use to sign a quality bench player or two.

Despite the question of Micić’s fit, it makes sense that the Bulls are looking into a potential trade. Good front offices always look to acquire talented players for a decent price, and if he can develop into a starting point guard, Chicago could fill a need without giving up nearly as much as they would if they either signed a free-agent point guard or acquired a bigger name via trade.

The front office obviously likes European players, as they’ve drafted Simonović and pulled off a blockbuster trade for Nikola Vučević. Though it remains to be seen whether the Bulls actually end up trading for Micić, they could end up getting a steal in the EuroLeague MVP.

Stats via Basketball Reference

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The New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks, two teams with new head coaches, faced off in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. Despite the Knicks being the higher seed and the widespread favorite to win the series, the Hawks handled the Knicks with ease, winning the series in five games. After an exciting and feisty playoff series, here are my thoughts on both teams going forward.

Atlanta Hawks

Can we appreciate Nate McMillan for a minute? After being fired by the Indiana Pacers, McMillan served as an assistant under Lloyd Pierce until the Hawks got off to a slow start and Pierce was fired. McMillan took a team that looked dead in the water and turned them into a true playoff contender. I never thought the Pacers’ lack of success was because of McMillan but instead because they lacked a true star. Malcolm Brogdon, Domantas Sabonis, and Myles Turner are all very good players, but none of them are good enough to lead a team on a deep playoff run. So the move to fire McMillan came as a surprise to me, and he proved to the world that Indiana’s front office made a mistake. Despite my love for both the Knicks’ Tom Thibodeau and the Suns’ Monty Williams, I think McMillan should be the clear favorite for the NBA’s Coach of the Year award. We saw how terrible this Hawks team was without McMillan. I’ll be shocked if Atlanta doesn’t retain McMillan as their head coach long-term, but if they don’t, expect him to quickly find a job elsewhere.

Despite how good they looked against the Knicks, do the Hawks actually have a chance against the #1 seed 76ers? If Joel Embiid remains out for most of the series, then I believe that the Hawks are the clear favorites. Ben Simmons proved in Game 4 that he can be a liability late in games, as his free throw shooting would even be bad for a center, much less a point guard. Without Embiid, who was an MVP candidate before dealing with injuries down the stretch, Philly just isn’t a great team. Despite Simmons’ defensive abilities, I don’t think he’ll be able to prevent Trae Young from scoring much, and even if he does, Young has been a more-than-capable facilitator, averaging 9.4(!) assists per game this season. Despite Dwight Howard’s improved play the past two seasons, there’s no way he can stop the frontcourt duo of John Collins and Clint Capela (who I thought was a steal of a trade acquisition last season). Obviously, this all changes if Embiid comes back, but unless he can suddenly recover from his meniscus tear, Atlanta has a great chance of advancing into the Eastern Conference Finals.

New York Knicks

Despite his terrible performance in the playoffs, let’s just appreciate Julius Randle’s turnaround this season. He went from a liability on the Knicks to a first-time All-Star under coach Tom Thibodeau. While Randle shouldn’t be a playoff team’s number one option, he certainly proved that he can be a great contributor to a winning team.

Now, it’s up to the rest of the Knicks’ roster and the front office to put a better team around Randle. R.J. Barrett showed marked improvement this season, but he still has a long way to go before becoming a great player. Both Barrett and Randle looked timid in the playoffs, and while this could be chalked up to a lack of playoff experience, that can’t be the excuse next year. Surprising breakout rookie Immanuel Quickley, who also had a good regular season, looked bad in the playoffs, averaging only 5.8 PPG on 30% shooting from the field. Obi Toppin didn’t see many minutes during the regular season, but that’s reasonable considering Thibs usually doesn’t play rookies much. He showed flashes this season but will need to carve out a much more defined role next season.

So, what do the Knicks do this offseason? Gone are the days of Knicks fans hoping to get the #1 pick in the draft lottery. Instead, the front office will have to somehow get a star on this team. With $67M in cap space, New York could easily sign one of this year’s premier free agents to a huge contract. New York also has all of their first-round picks, along with the Mavericks’ pick this year, which means they could easily pull off a trade if a star becomes available. Names like Russell Westbrook, Bradley Beal, and even Damian Lillard could be tossed around this offseason as teams look to rebuild and the Knicks have the cap space to simply take on stars’ salaries without having to send over other contracts.

Despite the Knicks’ disappointing playoff performance, the future is bright in the city of New York. For the first time in what feels like forever, the Knicks are a team on the rise. If they don’t mess up this offseason, they could be contenders for years to come.

Stats via Basketball Reference
Cap figures/salaries via Spotrac

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